MLB Preview: NL West

Welcome to the wild, wild NL West, where the power dynamics are shifting more than a politician’s position after a veritable big-check tornado that occurred this off-season. Despite the fact that Ace Pitchers and Big Spenders are the name of the game in this division, the teams may feel a little left out after all the attention the other NL divisions have gotten. But before you assorted baseball pundits go crowning a champion, don’t forget — it’s an #evenyear.

Crazy things happen in even years.

Los Angeles Dodgers

1st in NL West, lost in NLDS

The “Billion Dollar Bashers” made it to the post-season last year thanks in large part to two dynamic aces in Clayton Kershaw and Zac Greinke. They fell to the Mets, whose lineup was simply locked in, knocking Kershaw and Greinke around (relatively speaking) and generally feasting on the Dodgers’ lower tier pitchers. It was another disappointing early exit for a high-priced team full of talent, one that culminated in the firing of manager Don Mattingly. Then, in nightmarish fashion, Greinke left the Dodgers in free agency, heading to the desert to be the undisputed ace in Arizona. The Dodgers patched the hole with underrated signings in Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda, but the loss of Greinke will most certainly be felt. The rotation behind Kershaw is full of injury question marks, but should the rotation remain healthy and gain prior form, the Dodgers will trot out competitive starting pitching.

In the field, rookie Joc Peterson had an electric first half that cooled down into a mediocre second half, but his future looks bright for the Dodgers going forward. The enigmatic Yasiel Puig has been both a blazing talent and excruciating headache for Los Angeles the past few years, but a breakout year from a focused Puig could vault the Dodgers into the driver’s seat not only in the NL West, but in the entire NL. Promising prospect Corey Seager will look to nail down the starting shortstop job after a successful cup of coffee last season.

As for pitching, Kershaw continues to be all world and the rest of the rotation, while full of back-end starters includes Alex Wood, who has the potential to be a star pitcher, if he can limit his struggles pitching on the road. The Dodgers have enough talent to win the division for a fourth straight year (even against improved competition) but the task of putting it all together and galvanizing a team that often does not play to their potential will fall to a rookie manager, former player Dave Roberts.

Best Case Scenario: The rotation stays healthy and pitches brilliantly behind a masterful Kershaw, while the lineup becomes the juggernaut it could be, lead by Puig. The Dodgers run away and hide with the division allowing them to rest Kershaw going into the playoffs.

Worst Case Scenario: Injuries and ineffectiveness hit the Dodgers’ high priced stars hard, as Kershaw is sidelined and the patchwork rotation struggles. The Giants and Diamondbacks leapfrog L.A. for NL West supremacy, and the Dodgers are forced into a dogfight for the wildcard spot, forcing them to use Kershaw in a one game playoff even if they do make it.

Prediction: The Dodgers will play well but they will face unprecedented competition from within their division. A strong lineup will put them in the thick of the race, but rotational questions means the streak of division championships is over, pitting them against a hungry wildcard team.

San Francisco Giants

2nd in NL West

The 2014 defending champion Giants were unable to sustain their success in 2015, in large part to a ton of injuries and some key pieces leaving in free agency. They stayed in the playoff hunt for the majority of the season, but were unable to compete with the red hot NL Central teams. So, while it was a disappointing season in one sense, it was not an altogether unexpected one, given the circumstances. After all, it was an odd year. The Giants, who have won three of the last six World Series, have done so only in years ending in even numbers (’10, ’12, ’14), while struggling in the odd years sandwiched in between.

An off-season spending spree brought them a re-vamped rotation that includes Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzjia, who should give the Giants a solid top three when Madison Bumgarner is added into the equation. Should all three pitch well, the Giants may have the most dangerous rotation in the NL West, and quite possible all of MLB. San Francisco also addressed their outfield depth and arguably upgraded it with signing of Denard Span, but their infield remains questionable at best, heavily counting on Joe Panik to return to form after dealing with a serious back injury. If Posey and quirky outfielder Hunter Pence can stay healthy, the Giants should be able to scrape together enough runs to back what should be a fairly dominant rotation.

Best Case Scenario: Cueto, Samardzija, and Bumgarner all pitch like aces, while a pesky Giants lineup comes up with clutch hits as the Giants ride their even year voodoo all the way to their 4th World Series victory since 2010.

Worst Case Scenario: Cueto and Samardzija struggle mightily as they did at times last year, and injuries derail the few offensive weapons the Giants have, as they play catch-up behind the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, an ultimately futile task that ends the run of even year magic.

Prediction: A healthy and dominant rotation gets enough support from a plucky lineup that is aided by the even year vibes, as the Giants ride an MVP season from Buster Posey all the way to the Fall Classic and another even year championship.

Arizona Diamondbacks

3rd in NL West

The Diamonbacks’ 2015 season was very middle of the road with a few shining stars in the midst of drudgery. It was a season of improvement, as Arizona sniffed .500 thanks to a productive lineup headlined by Paul Goldschmidt, who batted .321 and knocked in 110 runs. With a promising farm system the Diamondbacks look to build themselves into contenders in the next few years and beyond.

But Chief of Baseball Operations, the famous Tony La Russa, had no designs upon “waiting for talent to mature and produce”. Instead, he shocked the baseball world by being exceedingly active in the free agent market, addressing the D’backs greatest area of need: starting pitching. They started with a splash, outbidding teams like the Giants and Cardinals for the best pitcher available, Zach Greinke, luring him to the desert on a 6-year, 206 million dollar deal. After nabbing Greinke (taking him away from the Dodgers, no less) with that outlandish contract, Arizona went out and mortgaged their future to acquire pitcher Shelby Miller from the Braves. Miller will improve their pitching depth and has upside but was probably not worth what they gave up for him, since the deal included 2015’s No. 1 pick, Dansby Swanson. The addition, however, gives Arizona a deep rotation when paired with their own Patrick Corbin and Robbie Ray.

Add a strong rotation to MVP candidate Goldschmidt at first base, who bounced back so impressively last year after the previous one was marred by injury, and center fielder A.J. Pollock, who is quickly inserting himself into the conversation for best center fielder along with the likes of Trout and McCutchen, and the Diamondbacks are legitimate contenders. They may flame out like the Padres did last year (see below) but Arizona will prove nettlesome at the very least to the established NL West powers.

Best Case Scenario: The Diamondbacks ride Greinke and Goldschmidt to the top of the NL West, as they get out in front of the Dodgers and Giants and never look back. A division title and a playoff run justify the off-season spending spree and the Diamondbacks are one of the last four teams left alive.

Worst Case Scenario: Greinke regresses, Shelby Miller’s 2015 proves to be an aberration and the Diamonbacks lose Goldschmidt to injury. The Dodgers, Giants, and Padres all pass Arizona, burying them just after the trading deadline.

Prediction: The Diamondbacks have all the pieces to be a contender. They were vastly underrated last year and Greinke’s numbers should translate well staying within the NL West, fixing what was their biggest problem from last year. The Diamondbacks win the NL West and put a scare into whatever team they face int the divisional round.

San Diego Padres

4th in NL West

The Padres stand as a specter to what could go wrong for Arizona. San Diego’s spending spree last off-season netted them Craig Kimbrell, Melvin Upton, James Shields, Matt Kemp, and assorted other big names — only for them to plod their way to a 4th place finish within their division. Many expected them to unload Upton, Shields, or promising young pitcher Tyson Ross to a contended last season at the trade deadline only for the Padres to stand pat, a head-scratching move to say the least.

They began unloading some of those contracts this offseason, shipping Kimberly and another high-priced reliever in Joaquin Benoit in separate deals the netted them a host of young prospects ripe with promise, but those are not expected to contribute to the big league club in 2016. Should San Diego struggle in the early going of 2016 (and the probably will considering they traded away the best part of their bullpen), they could easily start selling off these expensive assets even more prospects, and focus on 2017 and beyond. Though they still have talent, the Padres look like they are simply too far behind the rest of the West.

Best Case Scenario: “Big Game James” Shields returns to form as does Matt Kemp, and the Padres’ collection of talent shines through finally and they challenge for the NL West, thumbing their noses at the Diamondbacks as they struggle out of the gate. While they fall short of the playoffs the Padres improve, and the collection of prospects comes up in September and contributes ahead of schedule.

Worst Case Scenario: The Padres underwhelm yet again and fail to move anything but pitcher Tyson Ross, for whom they get very little back. The Rockies rebuilding surpasses their own and the Padres become the NL West bottom feeder.

Prediction: The Padres will come on strong in the second half to challenge for a Wildcard spot. Though they won’t make it they’ll more closely resemble the team many thought they would be in 2015.

Colorado Rockies

5th in NL West

As the Rockies piled up losses in 2015 it became clear it was time for them to make a change. The unraveling started when they traded longtime face of the franchise and fan favorite Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays, indicating a new era was underway in Denver. They’ve reportedly been shopping left fielder Carlos Gonzales, who has a productive bat and plays a serviceable corner outfield spot when not injured. Curiously, the Rockies traded budding outfielder Corey Dickerson for bullpen pitcher Jake McGhee and signed outfielder Gerardo Parra, who is a nice piece but somewhat of a puzzling move for a rebuilding team.

The Rockies got a cache of flame-throwing prospects for Tulo and they could similarly cash in on Gonzales at the trade deadline as teams become more desperate, setting themselves up for a rebuild.  Center fielder Charlie Blackmon has been rumored to be available but has played exceptionally well and provides excellent defense with an above-average bat. Third baseman Nolan Arenado leads the Rockies going forward, a perennial to be All-Star candidate for the next decade or so. Complimenting him at second base is D.J. LeMahieu, another gold-glove winner and All-Star. Colorado has nice position pieces that should put them in a position to compete; the problem, as always, is the starting rotation. Not only is Colorado not an attractive free agent landing spot for pitchers, but it can turn middle of the road pitchers into sub-standard ones fairly quickly. The Rockies have a rock-solid bullpen to counteract this, but they will need their rotation to both avoid injury and take the next step forward if they are to be relevant this year.

Best Case Scenario: The rotation holds up and the Rockies’ offense knocks the ball around, keeping Colorado around .500 and in contention for both the NL West and the wildcard. Ultimately they sell high on Carlos Gonzales and rake in the prospects, looking dangerous for 2017 and beyond.

Worst Case Scenario: CarGo gets hurt, the Rockies sink to the bottom and simply never recover. A young pitching staff gets shellacked for the second straight year, and the Rockies do not take a tangible step forward.

Prediction: The Rockies will be an enigmatic team that will have scoring outbursts, but will continue their recent trends of struggling at home. Look for this team to be an active seller at the trade deadline.