MLB 2016 Preview: NL East

The NL East had just about everything last year – MVP performances, epic collapses, August hot streaks, mid-season acquisitions, no-hitters, star-power, and of course – the eventual Champions of the National League.

As the 2016 season approaches, what can we expect from this division? Two teams are angling for the post-season, two teams are in rebuilding mode, and nobody knows what the Marlins are up to.

Let’s take a look.

 

 

 

New York Mets:

90-72, 1st in NL East, Lost in World Series

Things are looking up for the Mets. Coming off of a World Series run, the Mets had about as good a free agency as they could hope for. They re-signed Yoenis Céspedes to a deal that didn’t break them financially, while upgrading their infield by swapping out post-season hero second baseman Daniel Murphy for switch-hitters Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera, who both provide some pop and flexibility to the Mets’ lineup. Their shaky defense should be mitigated by the fact that their playing behind the most intimidating rotation in MLB at the moment, boasting young flamethrowers in Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz to go along with Matt Harvey, Zach Wheeler, and Dillon Gee. The Mets can absorb injuries with talent like that — although obviously no team wishes for that.

Best Case Scenario: The pitchers pitch like they did in 2015, Céspedes hits like he did in the second half of 2016 while David Wright stays healthy and provides protection in the middle of that lineup. The Mets earn a wire-to-wire division championship, as the Nationals crumble for a second year in a row.

Worst Case Scenario: David Wright gets hurt, Céspedes demonstrates why he was a player the Athletics, Red Sox, and Tigers all traded, the young pitching staff that threw more innings than they were used to last season has a slow start/suffers injuries, and the Mets find themselves playing catch-up behind a red-hot Nationals team. A stagnant offense and less than perfect pitching mean the Mets miss the postseason.

Prediction: The staff is great, the offense up and down. Mets battle the Nationals for the NL East crown all the way until September. Mets take the division thanks to 7 games in their last 10 coming against the rebuilding Phillies, while Nationals face sterner test from the Pirates and vastly improved D-Backs.

Washington Nationals:

83-79, 2nd in NL East

Last year was a meltdown for the ages. The year started off so promising after signing the prize free agent of last offseason (Max Scherzer), to  the richest deal in MLB History at the time, and actually having it look like he was worth that outlandish contract. He joined a rotation that had led the Majors in staff ERA the year before, slotting in in front of the likes of Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, and Gio Gonzales.

What should have been easily the best rotation in baseball finished 7th, which wasn’t terrible, but it masked the head-scratching inconsistencies and was inflated somewhat by Scherzer’s masterful first half he was unable to duplicate.

Bryce Harper won the MVP with a stellar season, batting .330 with 42 homeruns, but the rest of the lineup struggled (injuries to Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Jason Werth had something to do with that). A late season trade for Jonathan Papelbon backfired, alienating ex-closer Drew Storen (who had been pitching well) and culminating in a dugout fight between Papelbon and Harper, against the backdrop of the surging Mets catching, passing, and leaving the Nasty Nats in the dust.

The good news?

Most of this team is coming back and surely such a talented collection couldn’t be snakebit two years in a row. If, and that is a big if, the Nationals stay healthy they’re a good bet to make the postseason.

Best Case Scenario: Harper and Scherzer come charging out of the gates, Stephen Strasburg realizes his star potential, the rest of the lineup stays productive and healthy, and the Nationals clobber Mets pitching when they match up all the way to an NL East crown and a deep playoff run.

Worst Case Scenario: A repeat of last year that includes injuries to Harper and Scherzer.

Prediction: The Nationals lose out to the Mets for the division crown (barely) but host a Wild Card game.

Miami Marlins:

71-91, 3rd in NL East

The Marlins signed starting pitcher Wei-Yin Chen this off-season, indicating their intent on competing this year, though the rumor was they were in the seller’s market during this year’s winter meetings. Pairing him with star pitcher Jose Fernandez (still on the roster despite rumors of him being shopped) gives the Marlins a legitimate one-two punch in their rotation, and an offense led by Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton should at least carry some games. An above average defensive infield could steal a few games; but the Marlins will need to have some monster seasons from unexpected sources to leapfrog the teams above them. They are hoping new hitting coach Barry Bonds might be able to coax some power out of their young hitters, while having Ichiro Suzuki on the roster won’t hurt their advice pool either. The Marlins, as always, remain an enigma.

Best Case Scenario: Bonds proves to be as good a hitting coach as he was a player, and the Marlins offense puts up gaudy numbers behind an MVP-type season from Stanton, while Chen and Fernandez mow down opposing hitters with ease. The bullpen holds up and the Marlins pull of a surprising run at the division crown.

Worst Case Scenario: The Marlins stumble out of the gate; Stanton gets hurt, Gordon pulls another hamstring, and the Marlins find themselves as cellar dwellers by the All-Star break. Management panics and trades Fernandez to the Dodgers for a haul of prospects and Yasiel Puig, who promptly gets hurt and spends the rest of the year on the DL.

Prediction: The Marlins will push the Mets and Nationals in the beginning of the season before fading as the season wears on. They’ll stay on the fringes on the wildcard race until the last month of the season before ultimately bowing out.

Atlanta Braves:

67-95, 4th in NL East

Whatever the Braves do during the regular season, they have to feel pretty good about their quest to rebuild this offseason. They pulled of what could be the coup of the decade by sending off pitcher Shelby Miller and minor leaguer Gabe Speier to the Diamondbacks for outfielder Ender Inciarte, pitching prospect Aaron Blair, and the 2015 No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson. Miller was a pretty good No. 2 or No. 3 pitcher (and he’ll slot in nicely behind Zack Greinke in Arizona), but the consensus around MLB is he was nowhere worth the haul the Braves received in return. Inciarte is a defensive wizard, who could turn into a borderline All-Star should he find a more consistent stroke at the plate. Blair projects to be a solid mid-rotation starter as he develops. Swanson, however, could be this year’s Kris Bryant or Kyle Schwarber; the type of hitter who could fly through the minor leagues and potentially anchor the Braves lineup for the next decade. Only time will tell, but the Braves have to feel pretty good with their No. 1 ranked farm system headed into 2016.

Best Case Scenario: All the young talent begins to make its way to the majors while the Braves are able to flip some overachieving veterans for even more blue chip prospects at the deadline. A strong second half and blazing September accelerates the Braves timeline much like the Astros and Cubs.

Worst Case Scenario: Injuries and inconsistencies mar the Braves season, and they battle it out with the Phillies for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft. Meanwhile, Miller has a career year in Arizona and wins the Cy Young en route to a Diamondbacks World Series Victory.

Prediction: The Braves will have a lousy record (partly because of playing tough NL East opponents) but have a lot of promising call-ups that give hope for serious contention in 2017 and beyond.

Philadelphia Phillies:

63-99, 5th in NL East

Yeesh. It’s going to be a long few years for Philadelphia fans. The Eagles are a mess, the 76ers have turned tanking into an art form, the Flyers are bottom feeders, and the Phillies have been just as bad as their counterparts in other sports the past few seasons. But with the jettisoning of older, declining players and an infusion of talented youth on the way, the Phillies look like they could turn the corner — just maybe not in 2016.

Young pitchers Aaron Nola and  Jerad Eickhoff had good debuts last year, and former No. 1 overall pick Mark Appel will look to get what looked to be a career destined for stardom back on track. If Appel figures it out, sharpens command, adds a different pitch, etc., those three could lead a Phillies rotation that could challenge for supremacy down the road even in the loaded NL East. In the meantime, the lineup will be manned with promising but untested young players, sprinkled with veteran mainstays like Ryan Howard, who enters the final year of his albatross contract. Howard will platoon with Darin Ruf, who has proven to be very adept at hitting left-handed pitching, one of Howard’s weaknesses. Howard is still good for a decent amount of pop to go along with the low average, strike outs, and subpar defense, so the Phillies may get some decent production out of the position. Don’t expect too much, though, September will be the most exciting month as new prospects are called up.

Best Case Scenario: The Phillies have a surprisingly good first half, hanging on the edges of the playoff race. A solid first half by Ryan Howard allows the Phillies to flip him for a decent prospect of two. The young pitching staff excels, and the Phillies go into 2017 looking to buy.

Worst Case Scenario: The young pitchers regress, Ryan Howard signs a 5 year extension. Chip Kelly becomes GM, Sam Bradford decides he wants to play baseball, and the Mets or Nationals win the World Series.

Prediction: The Phillies play better than expected in 2016, and show off a young core that still indicates a bright future. “Better than expected” still means a lot of losses, and the Phillies and Braves battle it out for the No. 1 pick, a battle the Phillies “win”.