MLB Preview: NL Central

Story by John Zackrison

The three best teams in baseball, according to their records, came from the NL Central last season. The Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs all reached the post-season, but were forced to battle it out with one another when it came to crunch-time. The Cubs defeated the Pirates in a one game playoff for the right to play the Cardinals, whom they defeated. Injuries, a couple teams with an eye towards the future, rookie phenoms, and dominant starting pitching all shaped the course of the NL Central last year. What decides 2016?

St. Louis Cardinals 

1st in NL Central, Lost in NLDS

The 2015 Cardinals finished with the best record in baseball despite some devastating injuries including ace pitcher Adam Wainwright, who was lost for the majority of the season with a torn achilles. The Cardinals powered their way to the NL Central crown, but were given the unenviable task of facing the wild card winning Cubs or Pirates. They fell in 4 to the red-hot Cubs, in part due to a lack of starting pitching depth. Outside of a stellar performance from John Lackey in Game 1, St. Louis really never got a solid post-season performance out of their starters, as their go-to pitcher down the stretch, the emerging Carlos Martinez, was shelved with a shoulder injury. Despite excellent performances from outfielders Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk and Jason Heyward, the Cardinals simply couldn’t withstand the long-ball onslaught of the Cubs. Still, Cardinals fans had to be reasonably optimistic headed into this offseason.

Except nothing went as planned. The Cardinals attempted to make a big splash in free agency and sign David Price, but were outbid by the Red Sox. Next they Cubs signed John Lackey out from underneath them, not a terrible blow but a slap in the face to St. Louis fans. Then total disaster struck when the Cubs signed Jason Heyward, viewed to be a potential cornerstone piece for the Redbirds, now for a division rival. They recovered slightly by signing Mike Leake, who will provide excellent running/hitting from the pitcher’s spot in addition to slotting into the rotation, though the market for him was a bit overblown. Jed Gyrko and Jonathan Broxton could flourish in a change of scenery, but the signings were definitely of the lower tier. The Cardinals have young talent and veteran pieces due for a bounce back season; they also have an aging core and a rotation where every pitcher has a question mark, either due to injury or lack of production.

Best Case Scenario: The Cubs stumble out of the gate and the Cardinals outstrip the Pirates as Wainwright and Martinez dominate opposing lineups, with Leake producing solidly as the number three pitcher. St. Louis enjoys a healthy season full of timely hitting as the Cardinals slap, softly single, and three-run homer their way to victories with #CardinalsDevilMagic alive and well in 2016.

Worst Case Scenario: Wainwright and Martinez have slow starts to the season, Molina is never the same player, and the young hitters regress. The Pirates and Cubs both get off to torrid starts that leave the Cardinals scratching and clawing for the second playoff spot.

Prediction: The Cardinals certainly seem to have hit a rough patch. A prediction of missing the playoffs wouldn’t be outrageous, but…

….Anyone who watches baseball knows better than to count the Cardinals out. Their minor additions will hit .300, their unknown prospects will come up hitting, and Yadier Molina’s thumb will magically heal. Cardinals will be right there in the race for the NL Central with their more trendy and glamorous foes.

Pittsburgh Pirates

2nd in NL Central, lost in Wildcard Game

Another year, another one and done for an insanely talented Pittsburgh Pirates team. How on earth is it fair they face the hottest pitchers in baseball (Madison Bumgarner and Jake Arrieta) in back-to-back years in single elimination games? It’s not, and this off-season wasn’t much fairer for the small-market Buccos, who were not linked to any of the big name free agents available this off-season.

While the Pirates did not make any big splashes in free agency; they addressed the loss of A.J. Burnett (retirement) by dealing for Jonathan Niese and signing Ryan Vogelsong. The Pirate’s rotation appears to be solid if not spectacular behind  ace pitcher Gerrit Cole, who dealt with some rib inflammation over the winter, and despite trading second baseman Neil Walker and not addressing their first base situation with any particular decisiveness, their infield appears it will be productive enough if Jung-Ho Kang can recover fully from his nasty September injury. The best outfield in baseball comes back intact, with perennial MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen leading the way, and corner outfielders Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte positively ooze untapped potential with their mix of power and speed. The Pirates didn’t do much because they didn’t need to do much. That being said, in the arms race that is the NL Central, standing pat may be signing your own death warrant.

Best Case Scenario: Cole suffers no ill effects and pitches like an ace, the flotsam and jetsam the Pirates have collected are polished up and shine, and the young outfield terrorizes the national league by mashing homers, swiping bases, and catching anything hit to the outfield, with McCutchen the presumptive MVP as the Pirates finally escape the dreaded one game playoff and enjoy a full playoff series.

Worst Case Scenario: The Pirates struggle as injuries to Cole and McCutchen mean they are hard pressed to make the playoffs. The sneak into the Wildcard game and lose yet again.

Prediction: The Pirates will make the playoffs. Whether they can hold off the wily Cardinals or the uber talented Cubs is a total crapshoot; chances are Pirates end up in the wildcard came yet again, and let’s face it: their track record is not good.

Chicago Cubs

3rd in NL Central; lost in NLCS

This has got to be the most highly touted team to finish third place in a division in MLB history, a testament to how the competitive the NL Central was last season. The Cubs made it to the Wildcard game, dispatched the Pirates in convincing fashion, then exorcised some recent post-season demons by beating their ancient rivals the Cardinals in the NLDS round, before eventually being swept by the Mets. This was team not expected to make the strides it did in 2015; rookie call-ups like (eventual NL ROY) Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russel and Jorge Soler burst onto the scene, complemented by a historic season from NL Cy Young Winner Jake Arrieta. The Cubs, however, did not rest on their laurels this off-season, going out and acquiring second baseman Ben Zobrist and outfielder Jason Heyward to bolster their lineup and improve their defense. They traded 3-time All-Star Starlin Castro to free up cap space and acquire Adam Warren, as well as stealing John Lackey away to supplement a top heavy rotation.

The Cubs seem to be banking on Heyward’s ability to play centerfield, and while he is certainly capable, Chicago may find itself trotting out a less than intimidating defensive outfield with the talented but raw Soler and Schwarber flanking the converted right fielder. Over the course of the season, a few runs here or there may not matter, but in a playoff series, it could bite the Cubs as it did in the NLCS against the Mets. Cubs fans should be excited this year. Their team is deep, talented, and hungry; but the NL Central has three teams that could vie for the best record in baseball let alone the division crown, and anything can happen in a one game playoff (just ask the Pirates).

Best Case Scenario: The Cubs steamroll through the season then turn it up a notch in October and November, as their young talent realizes its full potential playing a full season. Arrieta and Lester rack up the post-season wins as their potent line-up alternates between long-ball and manufacturing runs under the watchful eye of Joe Maddon, all the way to sweet, sweet victory and the World Series.

Worst Case Scenario: Arrieta struggles, sophomore slumps plague the Cubs young talent, and their makeshift outfield gives up more runs than they produce. The red-hot Cardinals and Pirates run away with the division, and the Cubs are forced to battle for the final wildcard spot.

Prediction: Cubs will be in the thick of the NL Central race. A September heat wave propels the Cubs to a division championship and a long post-season run.

**UPDATE** : Cubs re-sign Dexter Fowler, presumably to reprise his role as CF, moving Heyward to his natural spot of RF. 

 

Cincinnati Reds

4th in NL Central

Weep, ye residents of Cincinnati, for winter has not been kind to you. Just as you were getting over the Bengals epic meltdown, the Reds go and trade away Ohio’s native son, Home Run Derby champion Todd Frazier to the White Sox. The flame-throwing Aroldis Chapman is also gone, shipped off to the Yankees for prospects. Jay Bruce is still there because he’s not very good at baseball at the moment and Brandon Phillips is still there after vetoed a trade(s). Without Frazier and Chapman, 2015 would have been borderline unwatchable, as the highlight of the Reds’ season was the All-Star Game festivities, as the Reds were below .500 verses the NL Central, a trend that looks to continue in the near future.

2016 will be a rebuilding year for the Reds, and 2017 might be as well, as the Reds seemingly went for quantity over quality in the returns for their two All-Stars. Jose Pereza, the one intriguing piece they managed to nab, is blocked at second base by Phillips. While Phillips has been productive, he is clearly on the downside of his career. If the Reds can move him later in the year, it would certainly speed up the rebuilding process.

The good news: Joey Votto is still here, and man can he hit a baseball. Votto had an MVP-type second half last year, and if he can produce like that over the course of the entire season, the Reds will be respectable. If Billy Hamilton can get on base enough to maximize his speed, then the Reds may sniff .500 this year. There are a handful of young pitchers on the roster including Anthony DeSclafani who give the Reds a semblance of MLB ready talent, but on the whole, this is a team in transition.

Best Case Scenario: Hamilton takes a step forward and Votto is in the MVP race; the Reds flip Bruce and Phillips for a cache of prospects and look to contend in 2017.

Worst Case Scenario: Votto gets hurt, Hamilton regresses even more, and Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce are still on the roster come 2017.

Prediction: Votto will produce, but the Reds will lose a lot of games in 2016.

 

Milwaukee Brewers

5th in NL Central

After a disappointing 2015, the Brewers are clearly dedicated to rebuilding for the future. Finishing last in the NL Central was somewhat of a surprise, but the steep dropoff from 2014’s .500 ballclub to the team that didn’t even crack 70 wins last year was a total surprise.  Injuries played a part, but for the most part the Brewers underachieved greatly. Seeing their chances plummeting as the top three teams in the division claimed three playoff spots, the Brewers gave up on the 2015 season and set their sights on the future. The rebuild started  with the trade of center fielder Carlos Gomez last year and continued into the off-season, as they traded outfielder Kris Davis for two minor leaguers, while also shipping former ascending star shortstop Jean Segura to the Diamondbacks for Chase Anderson, Isan Diaz, and infielder Aaron Hill, who will look to rebound from a down year last year. Jonathan Lucroy is still on the roster, but supposedly wants a trade as the Brew Crew look to be out of contention for the immediate future.

The outlook, however, is not all bleak. If franchise cornerstone Ryan Braun can stay healthy, he will likely produce better as he switches back to his preferred position of left field, and whether or not his production is aided by chemical means or not, Braun has the potential to carry a team. Matt Garza looks to bounce back from an underwhelming 2015 that ended in a most embarrassing fashion. If he can get back to even close to his top form, he will join a number of promising young pitchers including Taylor Jungmann and Jimmy Nelson. The Brewers are not bereft of talent, and could sneak into the playoff picture should a presumed favorite like the Cardinals or Cubs falter out of the gate.

Best Case Scenario: Braun hits like he did in 2012, the Brewers rotation is effective, and management has to make a tough decision on whether to acquire at the deadline or stand pat.

Worst Case Scenario: The young players do not produce, Braun re-aggravates his thumb and is caught doping again.

Prediction: A lot like the Reds: there is talent, but probably not enough to compete in the NL Central. Milwaukee will look toward 2017 and beyond.