AFC Wildcard Picture: Who’s In Who’s Out?

The AFC wildcard race has heated up, with five teams competing for two spots separated by just one game. Here’s a quick look at where things stand with four games to go:

 

The Jets won and the Texans lost, meaning New York is now the No. 6 seed. But can they remain there?

Here’s some predictions on how the last quarter of the season will shake out.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (7-5)

The Chiefs have resurrected themselves after many had counted them down and out following the loss of star running back Jamal Charles. Quarterback Alex Smith has played inspired football, the Chiefs have discovered that throwing to wide receivers isn’t against the rules, and running back fill-ins have done a respectable job. The defense has been amazing, stifling nearly everyone except for the Bills’ Sammy Watkins, who torched them in the first three quarters but was held without a catch in the 4th quarter of that game. It’s been a wacky season, with a five game losing streak followed by a six game winning streak. With an incredibly soft schedule (Chargers, @Ravens, Browns, Raiders), its easy to see Kansas City winning out, finishing 11-5 and holding on to the No. 5 seed in the AFC.

Verdict: PLAYOFFS — 5th seed.

 

6. New York Jets (7-5)

Though inconsistent, the Jets have a winning record, which is a big accomplishment. They have excellent receivers in Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall, a nice stable of running backs, and a hungry defense that is tied for 5th overall. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven he can lead the Jets to wins, but also has a penchant for throwing interceptions when pressured. They can get away with that against some teams; but against AFC East opponents, that will be their undoing.

After taking care of the Titans and Cowboys, the Jets will lose to a Patriots still playing for seeding and getting healthier. After that emotional let down, the Jets stumble against the Bills as Rex Ryan completes his revenge with a season sweep against his old squad, meaning the Jets end up finishing 9-7, missing the playoffs and sending them into another disappointing offseason.

Verdict: MISS THE CUT

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7. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)

They’ve suffered through injuries to their quarterback (twice) and a season ending one to their running back, but the Steelers keep coming. Sunday night’s game showed just how potent their offense can be. Their wide receiving corps, led by Antonio Brown, has become incredibly dangerous and may only get better, with  Running back DeAngelo Williams has proved an incredibly savvy pickup, filling in more than admirably for Le’Veon Bell. If -and this is a fairly big if- the defense can hold up, the Steelers could very well navigate their difficult remaining schedule and end up in the postseason. Corner Brandon Boykin has seen increased playing time and has played well, benefiting the whole defense. The health of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is the key to everything; Steelers will stumble should anything (else) happen to him.

Pittsburgh faces tough back-to-back games @ Bengals and vs. Broncos, finishing with easier games against the Ravens and Browns. They’ll split the first two, and sweep the last two, finishing 10-6.

Verdict: PLAYOFFS — 6th seed

 

8. Buffalo Bills (6-6)

Running back LeSean McCoy is heating up, and will be leaned on heavily as the weather grows colder. Tyrod Taylor may be the answer at quarterback for the Bills, providing an extra running element, and receiver Sammy Watkins has flashed star potential when given the opportunity. The defense has been somewhat of a disappointment this year, but they have the talent to generate pressure and hold up fairly well against the run, a key as the weather grows colder.

The Bills will feast on the NFC East the next three games, then knock off the Jets in a dramatic season finale to finish 10-6. Unfortunately for them, they lose the tiebreaker to Pittsburgh based on win percentage in common games.

Verdict: MISS THE CUT

 

9. Houston Texans (6-6)

The defense is coming on strong led by the implacable J.J. Watt, who is leading the league in sacks and who at times looks simply unblockable.  Quarterback Brian Hoyer is much more consistent after the turbulent beginning to the season, and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is a budding star who makes big plays regularly. If the offense can score touchdowns instead of field goals, the Texans should be in business the rest of the season as their stingy defense keeps opponents out of the endzone.

The Texans will lose a close one against the Patriots, but will take care of business against the Colts, Titans, and Jaguars to take the AFC South Crown away from the Colts. Matt Hasselbeck suddenly looks 40 again, and the return of Andrew Luck, even if healthy, won’t solve the Colts’ problems on offense.

Verdict: PLAYOFFS – AFC SOUTH CROWN