A recent ESPN mock draft used Football Outsiders’ projections to determine draft order, and based on that it seems they project a disappointing season for the Colts.
ESPN’s Todd McShay released a 2017 mock draft this past week and the order was determined by Football Outsiders’ projections for each team’s record. These projections are not released publicly until later this year, so these mock draft rankings are the first time we get an idea of how Football Outsiders thinks each team will do in 2016. And if what they say for the Colts actually happens, it will be a massively disappointing season in Indianapolis.
In McShay’s mock draft, the Colts are picking 13th overall – five spots higher than they did this year after their 8-8 campaign. That’s good for second place in the AFC South, behind the Houston Texans (who pick 21st) and just ahead of the Jacksonville Jaguars(who pick 12th) and the Tennessee Titans (who pick 10th). In other words, Football Outsiders expects another bad year for the AFC South division.
While this mock draft don’t disclose the specific record for teams (as that wasn’t the purpose of the article), the average win total for teams picking 13th overall over the past five years has been seven wins. That would put the Colts’ record at 7-9, one game worse than what they finished in 2015 despite playing nine games without Andrew Luck. It’s likely that the Texans would be projected to win around eight games, then (as they have the lowest pick of any playoff team in the mock draft) and the Jaguars six, or somewhere around those figures.
Of course, these projections can only say so much. For example, the Oakland Raiders are slotted to pick fifth overall in the draft next year based on the Football Outsiders projections, and I’d be shocked if they are picking that high. It’s hard to take everything into account for a statistical representation, which is likely part of the reason for the low opinion of the Colts – it likely can’t really figure out how to adjust for Andrew Luck coming back healthy this year.
In other words, don’t put too much stock into this, but it certainly is worth noting what Football Outsiders projects for different teams. For the Colts, they project a high draft pick, a second place finish in the AFC South, and a disappointing season.