NFC Wildcard Race: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

The landscape of the NFC has shifted greatly since the quarter mark of the season. Perennial powers have struggled, doormats have shown signs of life, and close games in October could end up looming large come December. Teams in this race are either poor starters who are showing signs of life (a.k.a. the Good), Talented teams hitting rough patches (a.k.a. the Bad) or teams that just don’t look like they’ll find a way into the playoffs (a.k.a the Ugly).

While the division races are by no means locked up, here is a look at what the NFC wildcard picture looks like at the moment, and what you can expect going forward.

NFC

5. Green Bay Packers (6-3)

A few weeks ago it seemed inconceivable that the Packers would be on this list, yet here they are. Their recent struggles (read about them here) were only exacerbated in yesterday’s embarrassing home loss to the Detroit Lions, a game in which the vaunted Packers offense put up only 3 points through three quarters plus.

That happened at Lambeau Field, and against a mediocre (at best) Lions pass defense. Drops, no running game, a regression in blocking and a spooked Aaron Rodgers have dropped them a game behind the Minnesota Vikings in the division race ahead of a tough road test at the Vikings next week. The Packers could very well find themselves on a 4-game losing streak and in serious trouble of fighting for the second wildcard.

Status: BAD

6. Atlanta Falcons (6-3)

The Falcons are in the same boat as the Packers; they looked like world beaters for the first part of the season only to falter as of late. The emergence of RB Devonta Freeman and the seemingly unstoppable connection of QB Matt Ryan to WR Julio Jones were carving up defenses left and right. But since a week 5 escape (in which it took a pick-six in overtime to beat the Washington Redskins), the Falcons have lost three of four to sub .500 teams (49ers, Saints, and Buccaneers) and their lone win was a 10-7 nail-biter against a Titans team missing their star quarterback Marcus Mariota. A bye-week should hopefully allow for some injuries to heal, considering four of their next seven games are against division leaders (Colts, Vikings, and two with the Panthers). Things could go south fairly quick if Atlanta doesn’t stop turning the ball over in the red zone.

Status: BAD

 

—————————————————————————————————————

7. Washington Redskins (4-5)

What a weird, weird team. They seem to be in every game, capable of fantastic comebacks or incredulous letdowns. When the Redskins win the turnover battle they seem like a legitimate playoff threat. Case in point Sunday, when they dropped 47 points on an admittedly struggling Saints squad, which in turn led to Rob Ryan’s dismissal as New Orleans’ defensive coordinator.

Their defense is adequate, their running game slightly above average depending on the week, and if Kirk Cousins can perform at a high level as he has done recently without turning the ball over, then the Redskins look to be in decent shape. Next week is a tough draw against an undefeated Panthers squad, but the remaining games after that are against inconsistent teams much like themselves — and if the Redskins take care of the ball, they should be in every game. In a weak division and with the teams above them struggling Washington looks like a playoff dark horse.

Status: GOOD

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5)

The Buccaneers may be 4-5 but they don’t pass the eye test. Their wins have come against sub-par teams, the Atlanta Falcons in the midst of their slide, and Sunday’s 10-6 win against the helpless-sans-Tony Romo Cowboys did little to encourage the idea that the Buccaneers will take a dramatic step forward this year. With injuries to the receiver corps and No. 1 draft pick quarterback Jameis Winston’s play still inconsistent and turnover prone, the Buccaneers are far from a polished product most weeks. Given that the Panthers have probably run away with this division, Tampa Bay will need a lot of teams to fall flat in order to sneak into the playoffs.

Status: UGLY

9. St. Louis Rams (4-5)

What was that? Fans were left scratching their heads after a Chicago Bears team missing its star running back and its best pass-rusher put a 37-13 whipping on the Rams at the Edward Jones Dome. While running back Todd Gurley looks like a superstar in the making, quarterback Nick Foles has struggled to throw to an underwhelming receiving unit that just picked up Wes Welker and started him in the same week. The talent laden defense barely showed up letting a back-up running back and tight end torch them for 4 TDs combined. The Rams should be better than this, as they are a dominant 3-0 against the NFC West, but they need cut down on penalties and find another source of offense besides Todd Gurley if they are going to leap-frog into the playoffs. Quarterback Case Keenum will get the chance over the benched Foles this Sunday.

Status: BAD

10. Seattle Seahawks (4-5)

Last year, the Seahawks were an improbable goal-line turnover away from a second straight Super Bowl. They started that year 3-3 before winning nine of ten en route to the playoffs. This year’s team currently  stands under .500 but are in much direr straits. There are no defensive standouts coming back from injury soon, along with a very real blocking problem on offense. Major off-season acquisition, tight end Jimmy Graham, has not been the difference maker many thought he would be and the mystique surrounding Seattle’s secondary has dissipated.

That being said, the Seahawks still have a talented roster and a relative easy schedule the rest of the way. They luck out in drawing a road game at Arizona (the team that beat them Sunday night) in Week 17, in a game that could potentially mean nothing to the Cardinals. If the defense can cause the same havoc it did Sunday night, they should beat most of the teams left on their schedule. A healthy Marshawn Lynch is key as the weather gets colder.

Status: GOOD

11. Philadelphia Eagles (4-5)

This year’s Eagles are a frustrating combination of talent and ineptness. With perhaps the best stable of running backs in the NFL, the Eagles have struggled to run the ball for most of the season, including Sunday’s 20-19 loss to the Miami Dolphins. Sam Bradford and the receiving corps have been inconsistent at best, and now due to Bradford’s injury Mark Sanchez will step in – hardly the answer to the Eagles’ woes. Their defense has been good at keeping them in games but may struggle against the run with undersized safeties more suited to coverage, as opponents will look to run the ball more frequently in colder weather. Tough games at the Patriots and against the Cardinals loom, but the NFC East is infinitely winnable and a game against both the Giants and Redskins remain.

Status: GOOD…but still UGLY

12. Chicago Bears (4-5)

An 0-3 start to the season had the Bears firmly at the bottom of the league, but since the return of Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffrey from injuries the Bears have been competitive in every game. Close losses to the Vikings and Lions point out that this team still has ways to go, but luckily for them the NFC looks like it will have to settle for “slightly above average” for that second wildcard spot. Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio has a nameless defense playing surprisingly well, and Jay Cutler has looked poised and effective in Offensive Coordinator Adam Gase’s new system. Running back Jeremy Langford has dazzled in relief of the injured Matt Forte, and Zach Miller’s performance on Sunday might give the Bears two credible tight end passing threats. A schedule that looked harrowing has softened somewhat as the Broncos and Packers are struggling, but the Bears will have to stay healthy and continue executing if they are going to force their way into the playoff picture.

Status: GOOD