UFC 192: The Preview

The light heavyweight title is on the line at UFC 192, which also features a bout that could determine the next number one contender in that division.

Main Event: Daniel Cormier versus Alexander Gustafsson

Cormier possesses deceptive quickness for a fighter with his build, something he is going to need to deal with Gustafsson’s reach advantage and fast lateral movement. Cormier is an effective striker in open space but he does his best work in the clinch, where he can combine his wrestling experience with his punches and utilize dirty boxing.

Gustafsson tends to be most effective at the mid to long-range kind of a fight. From the edge of his punching range he likes to pop his jab to the opponent’s body and head, while occasionally throwing in a right hand over the top. At long range he looks to catch his opponent coming in with jabs or uppercuts, as he did to Vladimir Matyushenko and Thiago Silva. He drops his right hand before he throws the uppercut, and tends to stand tall as he backs up, two technical flaws that leave him susceptible to the left hook and the overhand right.

The grappling isn’t as one-sided as Cormier’s Olympic wrestling background would seem to indicate. Gustafsson’s footwork prevents takedowns by not giving the opponent an opportunity to line up a shot. He’s also strong in the clinch, where he defends himself well and occasionally uses his long arms to gain a leverage advantage, allowing him to grab a leg taking down his opponent. It’s unlikely, however, he’ll play that game with Cormier. The closer Cormier gets to Gustafsson, the more this fight will favor him. Gustaffson will likely focus on using his defensive grappling skills, breaking from clinches early and maintaining distance. Cormier integrates his striking and grappling well, but in this matchup he will want to keep constant pressure on Gustaffson, cutting off the cage and getting a hold of the Swedish fighter as much as possible.

Cardio and stamina could be the deciding factor in this fight. Cormier’s motto is “embrace the grind,” and it shows in his fighting style. He likes to wear down and break his opponents. So far the only fighter to beat him at that game has been Jon Jones. Gustafsson uses quite a bit of energy with his movement-heavy style, and he was exhausted in the 5th round of his fight with Jon Jones (in all fairness, he took a significant amount of punishment at the end of the 4th). Gustafsson also hasn’t seemed to progress much in terms of fighting ability since the Jones fight, and his resume has been rather unimpressive since then. Cormier wasn’t wrong when he made a subtle dig at Gustafsson’s recent record (1-1 since the Jones fight, a knockout win over non-contender Jimi Manuwa and a knockout loss to Anthony Johnson). Gustafsson may have his moments early, but Cormier will keep pressuring and take over as the fight goes on.

Garbersports Prediction: Cormier by 4th round submission

 

Rashad Evans versus Ryan Bader

The biggest question going into the Rashad Evans versus Ryan Bader fight is how an almost two year layoff and multiple knee issues will affect Evans. The last time Evans had a knee injury saw him come back a year later and easily beat Tito Ortiz. If he comes back at the same level as before he should win this fight. Everything Bader does is done by Evans as well, except better. He is more fluid, a faster striker, and he uses his wrestling much more effectively. He gets caught occasionally but his defense is still significantly better than that of Bader, who frequently leaves his chin exposed.

Bader likes to exchange when he feels he has an advantage, and goes to his wrestling if he doesn’t. If he can’t outwrestle his opponent and isn’t able to land a big shot he doesn’t have much else to offer, which was  on full display in his dull decision win over Phil Davis. Evans doesn’t seem like the type of fighter who would force a come back if not 100 percent healthy. If he is fighting he is physically ready, although his timing may be off from being away for so long. It is unlikely Bader will take Evans down while Evans has a better chance of landing power strikes in a standing fight. Evans wants to make a statement after being away so long and that should make it a short night for Bader.

Garbersports Prediction: Evans by 2nd round knockout

The original co-main event for UFC 192, Johny Hendricks versus Tyron Woodley has been called off after weight cut complications sent Hendricks to the emergency room. No reschedule date has been set yet.